Sixty-Day Moving Average Fails to Hold Support, SHFE Lead Declines Again [Lead Futures Brief Commentary]

SMM November 21:

The most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened at 17,200 yuan/mt, moved sideways in early trading, then fell directly to 17,160 yuan/mt as bulls reduced positions. After a slight rebound before noon, it pulled back again as the 60-day moving average failed to hold, dropping to 17,150 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 17,165 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt or 0.32%, marking the second consecutive day of decline.

Recently, some primary lead and secondary lead smelters in east and central China have undergone maintenance, implemented production cuts, or are expected to halt operations. Environmental controls and vehicle restrictions in north China persist, leading to regional supply tightness. Following the recent decline in lead prices, downstream battery plants attempted to drive down prices, but smelters held firm offers, resulting in a price standoff and difficult transactions. In the short term, lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, awaiting new driving factors.

Data source statement: Data not from public sources are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not as decision-making advice.